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Grains World Markets and Trade - July 2011

http://www.thecropsite.com/articles/921/grains-world-markets-and-trade-july-2011

A widening wheat price gap reflects the different supply conditions, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Although prices have recently plunged, the gap between high and low-protein wheats has widened in recent months. Concerns over tightening supplies of high-protein wheat in exporter countries(Canada, the United States, and Germany)and abundant supplies of low-protein wheat in Russia and Ukraine are driving the gap wider.

Hard spring wheat and durum areas in Canada and the United States are lower than expected, which is contributing to a tight global high-protein supply situation. Moreover, U.S Hard Red Winter exports may be limited by strong domestic demand for its higher-than-normal protein. For durum, supplies are expected to contract significantly.

Major exporting countries like the United States, Canada, and France are all expected to have smaller supplies which will limit exports. As a result, the primary importing countries of North Africa and Italy are buying from small exporters such as Mexico. In contrast, low-protein wheat exporters Russia and Ukraine have removed export restrictions as supplies rebound from last year’s weather related shortfalls. Their combined exports are currently estimated to nearly triple from last year. Also, US Soft Red Winter supplies are projected at a 3- year high.

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global trade for 2011/12 is raised this month, resulting from increased demand by the EU, Egypt and Mexico. US exports are raised sharply this month as a result of Canada’s production cut. The US season-average farm price is reduced this month, but is still expected to be a record.

Prices

Domestic: Prices of all wheat classes plunged this month in response to the June 30 Grain Stocks report which indicated larger-than-expected wheat and corn stocks. Additionally, harvest pressure and anticipation of large Black Sea supplies reaching export positions pressured prices. Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Soft White Wheat (SWW) all dropped nearly 20 per cent. The decline in Hard Red Spring (HRS) was not as precipitous as the other wheat classes, but nonetheless, fell 13 per cent to $461/ton.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2011/12

Selected Exporters

·       Canada is slashed 2.5 million tons to 16.0 million as a result of a sharply reduced production projection.

·       Russia is raised 2.0 million tons to 12.0 million in view of reduced Ukrainian supplies and larger-than-expected early season sales.

·       Turkey is up 800,000 tons to 4.0 million owing to large exportable supplies.

·       Turkmenistan is estimated at 400,000 tons due to expected exports to Afghanistan.

·       Ukraine is cut 1.0 million tons to 7.5 million on a reduced production forecast.

·       United States is raised 2.5 million tons to 31.5 million supported by sharply lower exportable supplies in Canada.

Selected Importers

·       Egypt is raised 500,000 tons to 10.0 million on lower-than-expected domestic crop procurement.

·       EU is up 1.0 million tons to 7.5 million due to tight internal feed-quality wheat supplies.

·       Mexico is raised 400,000 tons to 3.5 million due to lower production.

·       United States is lowered 250,000 tons to 2.7 million on reduced exportable supplies in Canada.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11

Selected Exporters

·       Australia is up 1.0 million tons to 18.5 million on strong late-season shipments.

·       Canada is raised 300,000 tons to 16.5 million on strong late-season shipments, particularly feed-quality wheat, to South Korea.

·       Kazakhstan is raised 400,000 tons to 5.4 million on steady late-season flour exports.

Selected Importers

·       Algeria is raised 300,000 tons to 5.9 million on strong late-season imports, particularly from France.

·       Iraq is up 300,000 tons to 3.6 million on larger-than-expected purchases of Australian wheat.

·       South Korea is raised 300,000 tons to a record 4.7 million due to larger-than-expected feed-quality wheat imports.

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

For 2011, the global outlook has changed little since last month. Production still outpaces consumption, stocks are up from the previous year, and although trade was boosted, it is still below 2010 levels. For 2012, record production is expected to just meet record consumption, while trade is up from this year and stocks are down marginally. From last month, a rise in Egypt’s production nearly offset the fall in the United States, and the global increase in stocks and decrease in consumption was largely driven by India.

Prices

In the past month, Thai quotes spiked nearly $60 per ton, FOB, on campaign promises that the newly elected government would reinstitute the Paddy Mortgage Scheme so popular with farmers and millers during a prior administration. Under the mortgage scheme, the government purchases rice at above-market prices and then sells it back on the domestic or export market at unspecified dates. The program is likely to push prices up and hurt Thai competitiveness, however, as private buyers must compete with the higher government prices, and there is less rice in the market.

The program also creates uncertainty about market supplies, which leads to greater price volatility. With government stocks overhanging the market, prices can plummet if a release is announced or spike if one is canceled. Until the new program was announced, Thai quotes had been relatively stable compared to its competitors. This month’s spike widened the gap with Viet quotes and made Thai rice significantly more expensive than US rice for the first time since last September.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES

·       United States’ exports are down 100,000 tons to 3.3 million for 2012 and 50,000 tons to 3.3 million for 2011 on the much smaller 2011/12 crop.

·       Vietnam’s 2011 exports are up 200,000 tons to 6.4 million on sales to date, and imports are cut 100,000 tons to 500,000 on the pace of border trade with Cambodia.

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is slightly higher this month based mostly on stronger Chinese import demand for corn. A larger US corn crop and carryin stocks boost global consumption and ending stocks. The US season average farm price is lowered this month but remains a record.

China Buys US Corn, Keeps Analysts Watching: China’s import estimate is boosted sharply this month to 2.0 million tons. Amidst a record forecast for US corn production, dips in prices have attracted buying interest from China. Despite mixed signals of hog herd rebuilding, pork prices in China continue to rise. There seems to be enough uncertainty in the grains, oilseeds, and livestock sectors to keep analysts watching intently for the foreseeable future.

PRICES

US corn export quotes tumbled almost $60 per ton from the June WASDE into July. Prices have picked up $10 per ton in recent days on buying interest (China, Japan, Korea, Mexico, and unknown destinations) ending at $287/ton. Argentine and Brazilian quotes closely followed suit, ending at $285/ton and $278/ton respectively.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2011/12

Selected Exporters

·       United States corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 48.0 million, largely because of a higher forecast for China’s imports, as well as large new-crop sales.

·       Canadian corn is halved to 500,000 tons because of sharply reduced production prospects for most grains and strong domestic use (especially corn for ethanol).

·       Mexican corn is down 200,000 tons to 100,000 on smaller crop prospects.

·       Russian corn exports are cut 200,000 tons to 300,000 based on smaller crop prospects.

·       Argentine barley is up 400,000 tons to 1.5 million, on a larger crop and smaller supplies in Ukraine. (Exports for 10/11 are raised 300,000 tons to a record 1.6 million on greater production and continued large shipments to destinations such as China and Saudi Arabia.)

·       Ukrainian barley plummets 600,000 tons to 2.9 million on sharply lower production. (Exports for 10/11 are lowered 400,000 tons to 2.1 million as limited new crop availability should result in lower exports in the July-September period.)

·       Argentine sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million due to reduced competition.

·       US sorghum is down 200,000 tons to 3.3 million on smaller crop prospects as indicated by the June 30 Acreage report.

Selected Importers

·       Chinese corn is boosted sharply to 2.0 million, the highest since 1994/95, based on competitive US prices and purchases reported to USDA.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11

Selected Exporters

·       United States corn is cut by 500,000 tons to 48.0 million on slower-than-expected sales and shipments.

·       Australian barley is lowered by 300,000 tons to 4.0 million on slower-than-expected exports to date.

·       Argentine sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 1.8 million on larger exportable supplies.

Selected Importers

·       United States corn imports are boosted 150,000 tons to a record 750,000 because of continued strong shipments from Canada.

·       Algerian corn is raised 300,000 tons to a record 2.7 million; Peru is raised 200,000 tons to 1.7 million. Both changes are based on trade data showing higher shipments.

·       EU corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 7.3 million based on the continued strong pace of licenses.

·       Syrian and Taiwanese corn are cut 300,000 tons each based on slower-than-expected purchases and shipments. (Reductions are made for each in 2011/12 as well.)

·       Syrian barley falls 400,000 tons to 200,000 on sharply lower new crop exportable supplies in Ukraine. (Imports for 2011/12 were also lowered.)

·       Mexican sorghum is down 200,000 tons to 2.2 million on a larger crop.

July 2011